A Dynamic Prediction Framework for Urban Public Space Vitality: From Hypothesis to Algorithm and Verification

Predicting and assessing the vitality of public urban spaces is crucial for effective urban design, aiming to prevent issues such as “ghost streets” and minimize resource wastage. However, existing assessment methods often lack temporal dynamics or heavily rely on historical big data, limiting their ability to accurately predict outcomes for unbuilt projects. To address these challenges, this study integrates previous methodologies with observations of crowd characteristics in public spaces. It introduces the crowd-frequency hypothesis and develops an algorithm to establish a time-dimensional urban vitality dynamic prediction model. Through a case study of the Rundle Mall neighborhood in Adelaide, Australia, the effectiveness of the prediction model was validated using on-site observation sampling and comparative verification. The prediction model framework allows for the determination of urban vitality within specific time ranges by directly inputting basic information, providing valuable support to urban planners and government officials during the design and decision-making processes. It offers a cost-effective approach to achieve sustainable urban vitality construction. Furthermore, machine learning techniques, specifically the decision tree model, were applied to case data to develop a set of preliminary algorithm tools, which enable output of reference urban vitality levels (high-medium-low).