Mathematical Model for Mitigating the Community Spread of COVID – 19 in Afikpo North LGA of Ebonyi State, Nigeria

To mitigate the dynamics of covid-19 in Afikpo North Local Government Area of Ebonyi State in Nigeria, a mathematical model which incorporates the key compartment and parameters regarding covid-19 in Afikpo LGA. of Ebonyi State Nigeria is formulated. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next generation matrix, while the diseasefree equilibrium is found to be locally stable and globally asymptomatically stable when Ro < 1. The model in calibrated using data obtained from Nigeria centre for Disease Control (NCDC) in Ebonyi State and key parameters of the model are estimated, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of the parameters in mitigating the disease. Our analytical and simulation results in Ebonyi State between March 2023 and October 19, 2023, are in good agreement. Mitigation strategies and its effectiveness in reducing the spread of covid-19 across Afikpo North LGA are considered.