Geo-spatial Analysis of the Nexus between Population Growth, Environmental Transformation and Local People’s Livelihoods in Coastal Areas: The Case Study of Kigamboni Municipality, Tanzania

The world is facing an unprecedented population increase in coastal areas. This situation is mainly the result of human migration. The population increase has multiplier effects on the environment and development. In Kigamboni Municipality, land-use changes have been witnessed and new expansions, including agricultural, commercial, industrial and urban-related expansions, happen every day. Thus, this study investigates the impact of population growth on the environment and the local people’s livelihoods in Kigamboni. Land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes were quantified using satellite images. In addition, a total of 156 respondents were randomly selected from four sub-wards in the municipality. Primary data were collected using a structured questionnaire, in-depth interviews, observations and focus group discussions (FGDs). Remote sensing techniques were used to map the spatial and temporal variation of the area between 1995 and 2021 by using a Supervised Classification method in Random Forest Classifier model in R software to generate land-cover types. Seven major LULC categories were identified. The results show that the area under cultivation and the built-up area increased by 40% and 4%, respectively, and that bushlands, forests and grasslands had a declining trend of 34%, 6% and 13%, respectively. The population increase has both positive and negative effects on the local people’s livelihoods, including access to social services, improvement of infrastructure, the availability of markets, the increase in waste, pollution and the increase of the cost of land. The study recommends the formulation of appropriate policies on land-use planning in relation to population dynamics.